Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 19.206407 20.791929 22.496888 24.475142 26.718135 29.195132 32.155183
2025-09-07 16.497986 18.644752 21.106903 24.172659 27.935044 32.466162 38.438165
2025-09-14 14.681374 17.143915 20.113046 24.026784 29.161119 35.837231 45.482201
2025-09-21 13.274379 15.900172 19.193503 23.740608 30.051158 38.829496 52.639078
2025-09-28 12.614847 15.477543 19.206165 24.594678 32.513474 44.344843 64.814541
2025-10-05 11.731106 14.650914 18.562760 24.417073 33.417513 47.674708 74.448647
2025-10-12 11.026416 13.986002 18.051078 24.328996 34.390869 51.242674 85.590484
2025-10-19 10.537123 13.565675 17.826915 24.614961 35.961387 56.101454 101.006323
2025-10-26 9.989189 13.013408 17.351594 24.439153 36.708635 59.602370 114.954625
2025-11-02 9.489992 12.491710 16.871497 24.190343 37.270506 62.843258 129.774658
2025-11-09 9.106409 12.110308 16.568220 24.189360 38.263656 67.171338 149.780024
2025-11-16 8.713493 11.688164 16.166502 23.973563 38.809180 70.655866 169.494352
2025-11-23 8.348458 11.293796 15.791256 23.786113 39.425809 74.577530 193.978695
2025-11-30 8.011038 10.923036 15.428857 23.587596 39.998678 78.592041 222.554662
2025-12-07 7.721313 10.609588 15.137376 23.487743 40.764152 83.346277 259.377791
2025-12-14 7.425204 10.269939 14.779461 23.228929 41.147109 87.213749 297.189208
2025-12-21 7.348744 10.272185 14.990833 24.064560 44.115354 99.550119 402.686187
2025-12-28 7.104720 9.991943 14.701252 23.896295 44.722618 104.950948 477.369888
2026-01-04 6.892019 9.751934 14.465846 23.812635 45.523448 111.344134 578.952643
2026-01-11 6.750470 9.621066 14.412258 24.090525 47.277869 121.895884 764.570266
2026-01-18 6.550142 9.383342 14.154272 23.920494 47.849730 128.362906 941.085066
2026-01-25 6.351988 9.140773 13.874137 23.679491 48.198700 134.181785 1153.935935
2026-02-01 6.199755 8.968960 13.712735 23.678606 49.212463 143.409731 1534.775338